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No matter how you slice or dice, China poised to become the biggest economy.

Anonymous Wrote:

http://www.centurychina.com/plaboard/posts/3807407.shtml

China's economy to become world's biggest in 2035: study
WASHINGTON, July 8 (AFP) Jul 08, 2008

China's economy will overtake that of the United States by 2035 and be
twice its size by midcentury, a study released Tuesday by a US
research organization concluded.

The report by economist Albert Keidel of the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace said China's rapid growth is driven by domestic
demand more than exports, and will sustain high single-digit growth
rates well into the 21st century.

"China's economic performance clearly is no flash in the pan," Keidel
writes.

"Its growth this decade has averaged more than 10 percent a year and
is still going strong in the first half of 2008. Because its success
in recent decades has not been export-led but driven by domestic
demand, its rapid growth can continue well into the 21st century,
unfettered by world market limitation."

Keidel said the rise of China to the world's biggest economy will
happen regardless of the method of calculation.

Under current market-based estimates, China's gross domestic product
is about three trillion dollars compared to 14 trillion for the United
States.

Based on a more controversial purchasing power parity (PPP) measure
used by the World Bank and others to correct low labor-cost
distortions, he said China's GDP is roughly half of that of the United
States.

"Despite this low starting point, if China's expansion is anywhere
near as fast as the earlier expansion of other East Asian modernizers
at a comparable stage of development, the power of compound growth
rates means that China's economy will be larger than America's by
midcentury -- no matter how it is converted to dollars," Keidel wrote.
"Indeed, PPP valuation distinctions will diminish and eventually
disappear."

All rights reserved. © 2005 Agence France-Presse.

Related link: http://www.sinodaily.com/2006/080708200445.jjdmhfw1.html



On 9 Jul 2008 01:37:09 -0700, Gulshan Khan <...@ontario.com

In article <...@4ax.comsays...

Sorry guys and gals. Someone posted my message as a Chinese. I am
a Paki taxidriver in Ontario.

On Wed, 9 Jul 2008 09:01:01 -0700 (PDT), chatnoir <...@mindspring.com

Nazi Germany had such illusions also!

On Wed, 9 Jul 2008 10:58:19 -0700 (PDT), Thundercleets <...@yahoo.com

Maybe the National Peoples Congress will shed the developing nation
status by then.
It's doubtful though, they benefit so much from it.

The problem the Chinese have is similar to the Indian problem.
They need to divest their US dollars lest they be tied to the fortunes
of the US.

The runaway economy of China is more centralized than India's with
only a very few insiders benefiting from the contracts for all of the
that cheap labor.
At some point they will have to share more with their own workers or
bring in the People Liberation Army to kill all of the dissenters and
risk losing business because of that.

I had said before that it wasa race to the bottom, Will the Chinese
poison themselves to death before the Benedict Arnold wealthy in the
US bankrupt the country?

Anonymous Wrote:

<...@Comcast.com

Yes, though now China (and rest of the BRIC) is facing major inflation,
larger than what the EU and US is experiencing.

They'll feel the crash, too.

Under current assumed growth rates, naturally.

How much does a BigMac cost in China, anyway? (Assuming anyone want to
eat that shit...)

--
- Peter *** http://titancity.com/blog/
"Don't go around saying the world owes you a living. The world owes
you nothing. It was here first." - Mark Twain

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 15:17:35 -0700 (PDT), RichAsianKid <...@hotmail.com

Focusing on the above final paragraph:

"Despite this low starting point, if China's expansion is anywhere
near as fast as the earlier expansion of other East Asian modernizers
at a comparable stage of development, the power of compound growth
rates means that China's economy will be larger than America's by
midcentury -- no matter how it is converted to dollars," Keidel wrote.
"Indeed, PPP valuation distinctions will diminish and eventually
disappear."

I've posted this before in the prediction of the future India vs China
"race":

There’s the matter of recent economic trajectory. South Asian
countries (e.g. Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh) as a whole
grow way way slower than East Asian countries (e.g. HK/Singapore,
Taiwan, South Korea, Japan). India’s trajectory is very similar to its
South Asian counterparts (which are not shown) and in fact form a
distinct blue cluster, while NE Asian countries form another. As you
can see, China has crossed percentiles compared to India. There is
just quite similarly no analogous “South Asian” economic miracle.

http://i12.tinypic.com/43hq0b6.jpg

Note that the y-axis is not linear but log. And you'll note that
China's trajectory is in fact more or less parallel and perhaps even
converging, on a log scale, compared to its NE Asian counterparts.
India's trajectory and China's are, on the other hand, diverging. To
illustrate this point more graphically when you plot these on a linear
graph you get this:

http://i32.tinypic.com/2nut6iw.jpg

And here's from the horse's mouth -- Shankar Acharya, the Honorary
Professor at Icrier and former Chief Economic Adviser to the
Government of India.

http://in.rediff.com/money/2005/sep/27china.htm

I quote him:

"Looking to the future, it is easier to foresee a widening of the
existing economic disparities between China and India than a
reduction. Just consider that in the decade between 1992 and 2002
China increased her railway freight traffic by an amount greater than
India's total rail freight in 2002.

"Even more remarkable, the increase in China's merchandise exports in
each of the last three years was greater than total Indian exports for
that year! At a more qualitative level, you have only to compare the
hundreds of cranes deployed in adding to the thousands of gleaming
skyscrapers in Shanghai with the handful dotting Mumbai's skyline.

"During the last five years while we have debated the new Bangalore
airport, China has built quite a few new ones! Finally, how can we
hope to close the economic gap with China when almost every second
Indian child is malnourished?

"Let me put this bluntly: as an economy, we are simply not in China's
league."


On 10 Jul 2008 15:22:02 -0700, Why are chinese so ugly <...@a.com

In article <...@34g2000hsh.googlegroups.comRichAsianKid says...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/07/ccview107.xml
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23579763/
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8_ZJx99XUj4&refer=

WSJ has plenty of anti china news.

On Fri, 11 Jul 2008 06:17:38 -0700 (PDT), Old Pif <...@gmail.com

On Jul 10, 6:17 pm, RichAsianKid <...@hotmail.com

This summarizes the supremacy of enlighten dictatorship over corrupt
democracy. Go figure which one is winning.


Anonymous Wrote:

RichAsianKid, very informative and with graphs... Now I have a
feeling you will be labbled a Paki and/or Gulshan Khan who ever that
is...

The only comparasion between China and India is population... India
can't even compete with the city of Hong Kong let alone the rising
dragon.

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 15:17:35 -0700 (PDT), RichAsianKid
<...@hotmail.com
>

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 19:41:37 -0700 (PDT), RichAsianKid <...@hotmail.com

Thanks. You should welcome when people call you names. That's when
it's like they call you idiot, they have nothing more to say. Every
single time when people call you names you should wear that as some
badge of honor. As for India versus Hong Kong, the well-known UN-WIDER
study in late December 2006 shows that collectively over 1 billion
Indians are worth less than only 7 million Hong Kong'ers (0.92% vs
0.91%). It is quite possible that things have changed now but the
point remains that India (New Delhi) looks like this:

http://i33.tinypic.com/313g594.jpg

while Hong Kong looks like so:

http://i38.tinypic.com/5peuxf.jpg


On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 21:54:11 -0700 (PDT), rst0wxyz <...@yahoo.com

On Jul 10, 7:41 pm, RichAsianKid <...@hotmail.com
http://www.12hk.com/area/WanChai/WanChai.shtml

This is the better part of Hong Kong. Some areas in Hong Kong are
worse than India.

On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 15:24:27 -0700 (PDT), RichAsianKid <...@hotmail.com

On Jul 11, 12:54 am, rst0wxyz <...@yahoo.com
That's your modesty crying out loud again. (For those unacquainted
with rst0wxyz of soc.culture.china, he's born in Hong Kong)

Now, rst0wxyz, when was it that you last heard that children in Hong
Kong are cheaper than buffaloes?

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSDEL15186520070403

Afterall, Hong Kong's now experiencing the birth dearth (not
necessarily a bad thing considering its population density) and ranks
194/195 in terms of total fertility rates:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_territories_by_fertility_rat e

But once again, as I posted in reply to maur...@hotmail.com:

One of the worst places in Hong Kong (which I've been to when I
visited the Wetland Park which is a real joke in an urban jungle) is a
place known as Tin Shui Wai. Here's for your reference:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tin_Shui_Wai_New_Town

In fact, it made Times Asia in a very long article a year or two ago
comparing it to those fabled imported slums of Muslims in France and
black inner city ghettos where 2-digit IQ 30-year-old grandmothers in
the US hang.

Families live in cages (see pic at above link). Probably many are only
half-literate. Barely any can speak English. There's a certain
suffocating dullness to the entire atmosphere.

Here's a pic from the local bus ride.

http://i36.tinypic.com/mwwt9h.jpg

And here's the train station.

http://i38.tinypic.com/33c4pvn.jpg

But in India I guess you see these, as examples:

http://www.missionindia.org/?q=system/files/images/poverty.jpg
http://www.solarnavigator.net/images/poverty_India_Mumbai_family_washing_clothe s.jpg
http://weblogs3.nrc.nl/wereld/wp-content/uploads/indian_poor.jpg
http://files.blog-city.com/files/aa/32997/p/f/poverty_3_0146.gif

On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 11:57:37 -0700 (PDT), "mau...@hotmail.com" <...@hotmail.com

so which part of hk is worst? It would be very interesting to know
that the chinese are also shitting on railway tracks and streets and
cows rule the streets traffic...

and spiting inside the public buildings is top hilights yes those red
marks in public building are indian spits...

n Jul 11, 5:54 am, rst0wxyz <...@yahoo.com


On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 15:14:13 -0700 (PDT), RichAsianKid <...@hotmail.com

On Jul 12, 2:57 pm, "mau...@hotmail.com" <...@hotmail.com
One of the worst places in Hong Kong (which I've been to when I
visited the Wetland Park which is a real joke in an urban jungle) is a
place known as Tin Shui Wai. Here's for your reference:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tin_Shui_Wai_New_Town

In fact, it made Times Asia in a very long article a year or two ago
comparing it to those fabled imported slums of Muslims in France and
black inner city ghettos where 2-digit IQ 30-year-old grandmothers in
the US hang.

Families live in cages (see pic at above link). Probably many are only
half-literate. Barely any can speak English. There's a certain
suffocating dullness to the entire atmosphere.

Here's a pic from the local bus ride.

http://i36.tinypic.com/mwwt9h.jpg

And here's the train station.

http://i38.tinypic.com/33c4pvn.jpg

(All pics courtesy of yours truly)


On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 13:57:26 -0700 (PDT), rst0wxyz <...@yahoo.com

On Jul 12, 11:57 am, "mau...@hotmail.com" <...@hotmail.comwrote:

Go to Hong Kong or any Chinese cities in China, get off the main
primary road into narrow small alleyways, with very crowded conditions
fighting for elbow rooms. Your watch, wallet, or any personal items
around or in you may be stolen within minutes upon arrival.

I gave my grandmother an Omaga watch in the early 1960s in Hong Kong.
The next day, I ask you where the watch was, and she said someone
pulled it off her arm, and she showed me some scratches on her arm.

> n Jul 11, 5:54 am, rst0wxyz <...@yahoo.com> wrote:

On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 22:13:38 -0700 (PDT), "zin...@hotmail.com" <...@hotmail.com

in the 60's wow ????? I am talking abouit india now 2008.470 million
indians does not have toilet...

perhaps your gran ma did not like your omega watch and she traded it
in hk for jade??

which symbolize longivity while a watch/clock means your time is
running up

On Mon, 14 Jul 2008 23:11:23 +0800, "nerd" <...@tm.net.my

"mau...@hotmail.com" <...@hotmail.com
just go to any so called public toilet you would know,
even in the restaurant its very dirty.
i saw many of them shitting on the bridge.

really ?
the chinese govt has banned spitting in the pulbic and there is signboard
everwhere in china.


Anonymous Wrote:

On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 15:17:35 -0700 (PDT), RichAsianKid
<...@hotmail.com

Dear RichAsianKid I have said it once and I will say it again. As
much as Indians like to put India in the same league as China the fact
is that they are no where close and the gap keeps growing every year.
Indians should compare with Ethopia they may stand a better chance.
Any way the following article hits the nail right on the head.

http://www.rediff.com/money/2005/jan/18guest.htm

India and China: a comparison

January 18, 2005

The gap between the performance of the world's two largest nations,
China and India, keeps growing. Two instances from entirely different
fields should give us an idea.

The world's first commercial maglev (magnetic levitation) train is
operating between the Pudong International Airport and downtown
Shanghai.

It takes just seven minutes to cross the 30-kilometre distance --
which is about the same distance between Mumbai's international
airport and Nariman Point, which takes anywhere from 75 minutes to a
couple of hours, to cover.

In a different field, China won 63 medals in the last Olympics; India
just one. The growing gap in economic performance, too, evidences few
signs of narrowing.

Historically, there are a number of similarities between the two:
ancient civilisations, the world's leading and richest at one time;
going down the league table in the second-half of the second
millennium; and starting their progress to modernity in the middle of
the last century.

In the 1950s and 1960s there was considerable media debate on which
system, authoritarian communism in China or parliamentary democracy in
India, will deliver better.

There was not much difference in the economic performance roughly
until 1980, when the per capita incomes were also similar. Over the
last quarter century, both instituted economic reforms and growth
accelerated.

China embraced globalisation and trade enthusiastically, welcoming
foreign direct investment with no inhibitions, and gradually gaining
control of world markets for low-tech labour-intensive manufactures.

While reforms in India are supposed to have been initiated in 1991,
the doctrinaire socialist policy had begun to be diluted in the second
innings of Indira Gandhi.

The process of liberalisation continued under her son Rajiv Gandhi,
and more dramatically after 1991. The growth rate doubled from the
previous Hindu rate, but still lagged that of China.

The result has been that starting with more or less the same per
capita incomes 25 years back, Chinese incomes today are double that of
India's -- a result not only of faster GDP growth, but also of a lower
population increase, thanks to the one-child policy.

Both face growing economic inequality.

Today, apart from higher incomes and lower poverty, the areas in which
China is far ahead of us are literacy, FDI, labour rationalisation in
the public sector and infrastructure investments.

Many international observers are astounded at the sheer speed with
which infrastructure projects get implemented. As the Financial Times
commented (January 21, 2004) "if thousands of villagers have to be
moved to make way for roads or power stations, so be it: investment in
infrastructure underpins China's success."

While the Deng revolution completely discarded Mao's economic model,
the Chinese haven't forgotten one of the Great Helmsman's thoughts:
respect your enemy (that is, any problem) strategically, and despise
him tactically.

The blitzkrieg-like implementation of projects is an illustration of
the latter tenet.

Contrast the way the giant Three Gorges Dam has come up in China, with
the fate of the Sardar Sarovar Project in Gujarat.

Agitation, endless court cases, environmentalists, and other
manifestations of a democratic, rule-of-law society have not only
delayed implementation perhaps by a decade, but also added enormously
to the costs.

And the direct cost escalation is perhaps only a small part of the
total cost to the economy.

One can only imagine the output lost because of the delays in the
starting of the project.

Take another instance where China is ahead of us, namely,
labour-intensive manufacture.

Our labour laws, which protect existing employment, but at the cost of
creating new jobs, have created a bias in favour of capital-intensive
investments.

An Ambani prefers a refinery, in which the only comparative advantage
comes out of the duty structure, to manufacturing, say, toys in
billions and exporting them to the world.

China does not seem to be treating PSUs as holy cows either --
millions of jobs in state-owned enterprises have been lost in
preparation for world competition.

But new ones keep getting created in larger numbers. In contrast, we
not only condone over-manning, but also keep thousands employed in
factories that haven't produced anything for decades.

No wonder resources are short for the much-needed investments.
Organised private industry, afraid of labour laws, has produced few
new ones in recent years.

There is a positive side to our system as well: we avoided the
millions of starvation deaths that were a corollary to Mao's "Great
Leap Forward" in augmenting steel output, and the social chaos of his
Cultural Revolution.

Only an authoritarian system would permit such excesses. But the fact
remains that fast growth in Asia has invariably come under
authoritarian governments.

The correlation is strong, but as political correctness will argue,
correlation is not necessarily cause and effect. Again, is quarter of
a century too short a period to compare the efficacy of enlightened,
reformist, authoritarian regimes and political democracies?

To be sure, there is one field where we have a good, if frightening,
chance of beating China -- population. In most other areas, it is more
comfortable to stop making comparisons.
Powered by

On 12 Jul 2008 06:58:10 -0700, Sherlock Holmes <...@a.com

Hello Gulshan Khan, Maulana Satian

What. Under some witness protection program. ?????

I understand it is easy to change your name to LuChunck. But how do you manage
to look like a chinkie.

On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 11:51:11 -0700 (PDT), "mau...@hotmail.com" <...@hotmail.com

On Jul 12, 2:58 pm, Sherlock Holmes <...@a.com

the art of plastic surgery.. if a black man can be turned white it is
easy and achievable

though michael Jackson has had one too many...

On Sat, 12 Jul 2008 14:59:32 -0700 (PDT), RichAsianKid <...@hotmail.com

Your article raised very interesting points. If you think about it,
this ideology of democracy is really a form of political socialism.
Why is it that an illiterate 75 IQ inner city mother of 12 should have
as much say as an educated IQ 125 computer consultant or economist in
some election? It makes little sense. But we're supposed to celebrate
this wonderful wonderful idea of universal 'human rights', or pretend
that 'all men are created equal' etc etc.

In the case of East Asia, the current areas with the highest GDP per
capita are not exactly well known for democracy: Singapore and Hong
Kong. As of 2007, the GDP per capita PPP figures according to the IMF,
World Bank, and CIA figures are, respectively:

Singapore: 49,714 50,299 49,700
Hong Kong: 41,994 42,321 42,000

Now let's compare that to the UK where Singapore and HK were once
colonies:
United Kingdom 35,134 34,105 35,100

Or to an economic giant such as Germany:
Germany 34,181 33,450 34,200

Or to small prosperous NW European nations such as Sweden:
Sweden 36,494 35,622 36,500

Singapore prime minister had this to say in a revealing interview
(which features a snippet of India-born Fareed Zakaria
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fareed_Zakaria )

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3YFl-dY9Qg

My take? The very avuncular Lee Kwan Yew may not have gotten
everything right, and Singapore is in some ways probably most
beautiful and best appreciated from afar. My gut feeling though is
that history will likely judge him by what he did, rather than what he
didn't do.

Ideology isn't everything. Nor should it be.

On Mon, 14 Jul 2008 22:59:12 +0800, "nerd" <...@tm.net.my

<...@Comcast.comthis is a three and half year old news

we are not sure which system would deliver better, have to wait and see.

this poses a problem,as married couple have to support the child,father and
mother,grandfather,grandmother from both sides.

that is no comparison as authoritarian communism in China or parliamentary
democracy in India.one party rule,there is no oposition.

during my recent visit to China ,i was told by my friend that most of the
factories in China produces goods to be marketed US market and frequently
some big factories have been closed down as not following the human right
standards as working hour up to 10 hours a day without overtime allowances
paid some factory opens on sunday, surprisingly being communist
country,worker
rights is not paramount.i m surprised tho...
and one more thing products are of low quality good there is no ISO.
standards
worker get a very low pay somewhat between 700 - 800 Yuan a month.


On Tue, 15 Jul 2008 15:40:22 -0500, "harmony" <...@hotmail.com

china will dazzle the world like the world has never been dazzzled before
during the olympics. i think shanghai will surpass paris as the no.1 tourist
place after that.

"RichAsianKid" <...@34g2000hsh.googlegroups.com...

Focusing on the above final paragraph:

"Despite this low starting point, if China's expansion is anywhere
near as fast as the earlier expansion of other East Asian modernizers
at a comparable stage of development, the power of compound growth
rates means that China's economy will be larger than America's by
midcentury -- no matter how it is converted to dollars," Keidel wrote.
"Indeed, PPP valuation distinctions will diminish and eventually
disappear."

I've posted this before in the prediction of the future India vs China
"race":

Theres the matter of recent economic trajectory. South Asian
countries (e.g. Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh) as a whole
grow way way slower than East Asian countries (e.g. HK/Singapore,
Taiwan, South Korea, Japan). Indias trajectory is very similar to its
South Asian counterparts (which are not shown) and in fact form a
distinct blue cluster, while NE Asian countries form another. As you
can see, China has crossed percentiles compared to India. There is
just quite similarly no analogous South Asian economic miracle.

http://i12.tinypic.com/43hq0b6.jpg

Note that the y-axis is not linear but log. And you'll note that
China's trajectory is in fact more or less parallel and perhaps even
converging, on a log scale, compared to its NE Asian counterparts.
India's trajectory and China's are, on the other hand, diverging. To
illustrate this point more graphically when you plot these on a linear
graph you get this:

http://i32.tinypic.com/2nut6iw.jpg

And here's from the horse's mouth -- Shankar Acharya, the Honorary
Professor at Icrier and former Chief Economic Adviser to the
Government of India.

http://in.rediff.com/money/2005/sep/27china.htm

I quote him:

"Looking to the future, it is easier to foresee a widening of the
existing economic disparities between China and India than a
reduction. Just consider that in the decade between 1992 and 2002
China increased her railway freight traffic by an amount greater than
India's total rail freight in 2002.

"Even more remarkable, the increase in China's merchandise exports in
each of the last three years was greater than total Indian exports for
that year! At a more qualitative level, you have only to compare the
hundreds of cranes deployed in adding to the thousands of gleaming
skyscrapers in Shanghai with the handful dotting Mumbai's skyline.

"During the last five years while we have debated the new Bangalore
airport, China has built quite a few new ones! Finally, how can we
hope to close the economic gap with China when almost every second
Indian child is malnourished?

"Let me put this bluntly: as an economy, we are simply not in China's
league."


On Tue, 15 Jul 2008 14:00:01 -0700 (PDT), rst0wxyz <...@yahoo.com

On Jul 15, 1:40 pm, "harmony" <...@hotmail.com
No matter how well you planned your events, there are always the
unexpected. I only hope the 2008 Olympics will go smoothly and not
one that outdone the Munich Olympics of 1972.

> league."

On Tue, 15 Jul 2008 21:02:06 GMT, Coffee in Madrid <...@THISeastlink.ca

In article <...@news.suddenlink.net "harmony" <...@hotmail.com

I hope the dazzle includes a "revolutionary" switcheroo to green energy
and zero CO2 output within 10 years. That would really dazzle the world.

Death-rate in China due to pollution: #1 cause of death