Braskem S.A. - Any Long Ideas? -BK - BAK

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	Braskem S.A. - Any Long Ideas? -BK - BAK - InvestorVillage Any Long Ideas? Getting hard to find anything to get excited about here - any ideas for defensive growth, dividends, etc? 145684 by billgatesisevilus 0 10/7/2009 12:19:29 PM # 145687 by the_old_weasel 0 10/7/2009 12:27:07 PM # 145692 by ikea_repairman 0 10/7/2009 1:07:43 PM # 145696 by slam_bam_sam 0 10/7/2009 1:29:03 PM # 145744 by Infringer 0 10/7/2009 5:37:19 PM # 145763 by batman10023 0 10/7/2009 11:34:54 PM # 145921 by agatesystems 0 10/8/2009 11:25:46 PM # 146020 by iwantwhatscomingtome 0 10/9/2009 10:38:09 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? I think it is all about conservation of capital. The market is not rational here. No long ideas from this guy. This morning's Fritzathon from GM was basically worthless cheerleading. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145685 by xds68 0 10/7/2009 12:23:05 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? I thought you were going to pound the table on the telecomms! For what it's worth, I think VZ one of the few real values left here - Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145689 by frodnig 0 10/7/2009 12:45:24 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? We should all just daytrade EWZ as part of the best of the bubble machine. Liquid, mindless and lucrative. But the global ramp seems to be off today perhaps due to a lack of short sellers willing to stand on the railroad tracks. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145688 by xds68 0 10/7/2009 12:29:07 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? I agree, once things get toppy like this, prob. Day trading is the best risk/reward - Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145691 by the_old_weasel 0 10/7/2009 12:58:40 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? I thought that VZ had declared themselves an 'entertainment company' and were spinning off / selling their wireline business. No? Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145690 by xds68 0 10/7/2009 12:49:22 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? They sold some of the rural lines, and are trying to sell another slug - most of their profits come from wireless at this point - Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145702 by billgatesisevilus 0 10/7/2009 2:14:26 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? Particularly with Bubbles Ben being a chronic printer, the Pavlovian response for us is to become daytrade carry traders. I will become Weasel Watanabe. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145693 by the_old_weasel 1 10/7/2009 1:10:02 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? I think ABK will make it to 2011 and pay off the $150m due on 8/1/2011. It's at .60 cents now. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145698 by xds68 0 10/7/2009 1:50:52 PM # 145705 by AJSutton 0 10/7/2009 3:04:15 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? You know, I am actually contemplating this seriously which would indicate we're at a top:) Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145699 by dave1mn2 0 10/7/2009 1:52:46 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? NOVS.pk?


	Re: Any Long Ideas? yeah, I think that is a good spec - do you have a view on whether ABK ultimately survives? Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145700 by ikea_repairman 0 10/7/2009 2:10:26 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? I've got to be adding some more puts pretty soon to allow some time away but when is best, is anyones guess. The monster run I bought them into the other day was followed by another monster run. Tough to make money or even buy reasonable protection with that going on. There is a narrowing confluence of supportive technical indicators in close proximity. It may take an event to bust through. OTOH any old hic-up in the $, or several major earnings misses, or major unhappy guidance and it'd blow through em like they weren't even there. The main trend line from the March low is unsustainably steep, we both know that but expecting much more than the 200day MA might be a mistake. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145701 by the_old_weasel 0 10/7/2009 2:12:34 PM # 145709 by AJSutton 0 10/7/2009 3:32:05 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? <<whether ABK ultimately survives>> I don't know. The others here have a much better handle on that. But there is a good chance the Co try everything to survive. And they likely limp beyond 8/1/2011. I think the holding co has $160m or so in cash currently (PR dated 8/7)


	Re: Any Long Ideas? >expecting much more than the 200day MA might be a mistake.< heh, heh....hitting the 200 day MA would feel almost like a crash based on the steepness and longevity of the ascent...can you imagine the immediate editorial change in the newsflow? It would be pandemonium. This is the problem with bubbles:) Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145703 by dave1mn2 0 10/7/2009 2:25:52 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? I have not found Seldenberg to be anyone who returns value to the shareholders.


	Re: Any Long Ideas? Expecting that with Santa on the way is probably a mistake outside of an event or a dismal earnings season complete with downward guidance but just one of the reasons I use charts, is the help me get a visual of all things possible. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145704 by billgatesisevilus 1 10/7/2009 2:35:55 PM # 145707 by the_old_weasel 0 10/7/2009 3:16:15 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? With the consumer de-leveraging via defaults or payments I do not see a happy Xmas season for the retailers. Rail shipments are down. I still consider this "recovery" to be pretty L shaped. Its going to take a long time to destroy the excess credit that was created during the housing insanity. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145710 by dave1mn2 0 10/7/2009 3:33:18 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? <<I think ABK will make it to 2011 and pay off the $150m due on 8/1/2011. It's at .60 cents now.>> In that case consider the senior unsecured AKF, now at $7.24. I can't get too excited about it but retain an old 1% position. I am now about even as interest payments about equal the capital loss- could be worse. A problem is the relatively low coupon (5.95%), which will limit appreciation. But OTOH, the AIG senior unsecured KNO now trades at $17.87, showing pigs shackled with the AIG chains can indeed fly. I am scaling out of that, but have a long way to go as I always sell these things too early. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145961 by ikea_repairman 0 10/9/2009 10:42:45 AM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? >Expecting that with Santa on the way is probably a mistake < On the contrary...practically a fait accompli at some point due to the rapid ascent of 200 day MA


	Index Puts- Dave <<I've got to be adding some more puts pretty soon to allow some time away but when is best, is anyones guess.>> You and me both. I started to build a position in SPX puts by scaling in on rises about 4 months ago and had built a small position, but then liquidated the it all a month later, which in hindsight was right. I am always always always early and am keeping a ball peen hammer close at hand to give my forehead a good smack when I get the itchy trigger finger, buy or sell. These rallies (and crashes) get a life of their own. If this market can rally in the face of truly nasty news, what would it do if we actually had something good show up? As I remember, we were about a year early on the crash of the builders, subprime, and then the banks. The problem with being early isn't so much how you get scalped on losing money (or not making more), but rather the discouragement may make you give up at the wrong time. Were it not for the encouragement of Norm and others on this board, for example, I would have thrown in the towel on the NFI puts, but I kept plugging away based on those horrible pool performance reports that people kept ignoring. I way overweighted this but in the end it was killer. And I sold too soon LOL. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145716 by dave1mn2 1 10/7/2009 4:04:26 PM # 145898 by Scout4Value 0 10/8/2009 4:13:05 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? Bill, I read the same reports you do, I understand, really but what am I supposed to think when my dear friend who owns a recycling center says brokers are calling her wanting everything on her lot, another friend in trucking tells me buis, while not normal compared to 07, is up compared to 08. I hear more trains, fortunately in the distance but more and while out doing some shopping last weekend for the new joint, people were everywhere. I'm in the middle of nowhere so, either some strange stars aligned to create this pocket of prosperity, closing car plants and all, or the reports are dated or skewed somehow and we're past what they describe. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145711 by billgatesisevilus 0 10/7/2009 3:43:45 PM # 145712 by the_old_weasel 0 10/7/2009 3:44:23 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? I guess we find out what reality is in due time. I still cannot see a happy Xmas season for anyone. Certainly until there is certainty on the health rot and the crap and trade horse manure, it will be hard for companies to plan on anything and do new hires. Until they do new hires unemployment is going to suck. The Discover spending index was up a bit, but consumer confidence is taking it in the gut. Http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/indexes/rasmussen_consumer_index2/rasmussen_consumer_index


	Re: Any Long Ideas? it's not like it's the end of retail they're just way way overpriced relative to earnings potential


	Re: Index Puts- Dave I dearly wish I'd found this bd before becoming involved with NFI. It is surely my single largest mistake. Rotating to the preferreds saved my bacon but it was still, not good. Even a little more painful knowing that at one time, for a few days, it was profitable and with enough volume for me to get out and didn't. Lazy, greed for yield is all I can attribute it to. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145762 by batman10023 0 10/7/2009 11:27:42 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? I've been looking at going long OSKME, OSKMF, and OSKMG. Pricing has held me back so far. Shorting OSKAF or OSKAG as a hedge might make me pull the trigger.


	Re: Index Puts- Dave you realize that the folks over there hate several of us with a passion for trying to explain gaap/taxable income along with liar loans and poor underwriting. even without the meltdown in the subprime market, nfi was heading for a huge dividend cut given the structure of their securitization deals. But all we got was a lot of crap... Although i suspect the combined profits on this board were at least 5-10mm shorting the puppy. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145776 by dave1mn2 0 10/8/2009 8:15:51 AM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? i still like and own NATH and would buy more below 13. It's about an 8% position for me. Not going to get wealthy off it but i see it at 19 bucks or so in 12-18 months with low downside (maybe to 11 or so).


	Re: Index Puts- Dave I knew there were problems but thought I'd discounted them sufficiently. How the gaap/TI confusion persisted for so long I've no clue. Bunny hypnosis I guess. Fortunately, that wasn't my problem nor was the ridiculous weighting that many used. In fact, I'm not too popular over there either. I was eventually convinced though that sales resulting in fails to deliver did play a part in their demise. The market's reaction to and volumes after the Babson backstop was announced, can't be explained any other way. I'll never agree that that sort of thing is OK. It really is the equivalent of counterfeiting corporate currency, which is the same as theft. Its not OK.


	Re: Index Puts- Dave The problem with being early isn't so much how you get scalped on losing money (or not making more), but rather the discouragement may make you give up at the wrong time. This is the one that generally gets me and why I always TRY to wait for the turn, but oh how I hate averaging up. When I am too early, I am usually happy to get out even and look for a new play. I bought GE and USG in early March and was happy to take a very small profit when I made back my loss, then of course they doubled and trippled. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145906 by AJSutton 4 10/8/2009 6:15:48 PM


	Re: Timing Problems On The Buy/Sell- Scout4Value I am like you and can hardly stand to buy on the way up or sell on the way down, absent new and REAL news (not some damn upgrade by some idiot analyst- trade against those). The momentum guys do the opposite, and thank you, Mo-Mos, as they drive the irrational ups and downs. So I have been using the scale-in method to help out. Thanks Flipper, you are so helpful in encouraging safe behavior- I suspect you have a large position in condom manufacturers. You start buying that cheap one (hold back until you can hardly stand it), then add more on the way down. If circumstances change, stop buying or dump it, but if not, just keep buying lower and lower. Calculate the $ (NOT SHARE) position you are willing to take and then divide it up into a bunch of orders with lower and lower prices. At some point you have the position, so stop and then pray, sacrifice chickens and virgins, etc. Don't think about commissions, that is cheap change. If you have $20K you want to put into it, divide it up into 10 orders and screw the commissions. For small trades, IB is ideal, as you can trade 200 shares for a buck. They nail you on high share trades, but so be it, and I have a TD Ameritrade account where they will do the trade of any number of shares for $6, so I can do those there. I do the same on the way up, selling pieces at ever-higher prices on the way up. With KNO, I am doing that now. I started a couple weeks ago and have reduced the 8% position to 7% (including the price rise, which tends to keep it at the same percentage). Still, I started at $17.25 and plan to be out above $20, tranching it out by a equal number of shares at increasing prices. Now it is $17.95, and keeps moving up. On the way up, the equal share trades help me avoid dumping too soon- on the way down, I will do equal $ trades- damn, I am cheap, cheap, cheap, at least in the markets. For me, I was kind of forced into this because of large positions (to sell or buy), in the illiquid stuff where the big opportunities exist. On the buy side, I have lately (last month) been accumulating more and more FNM and FRE preferreds. These bastards are so illiquid that I do 2,000 share trades on declining prices. You will see me at the bid now and then, or I will get some when some dumb-ass puts in a market order. 2,000 shares of a $2.50 stock is $5K, which corresponds to a for me to a .04% trade, but I don't care, PATIENCE PAYS, ALWAYS (true in trading, surfing, and women). I mostly buy the $50 face, and you can get the $25 face in large amounts, but at a much higher percent of face (well 20% higher). So I ladder the $50 face trades and have another 2,000 lower, and another 2,000 lower, and so on. I don't care how long it takes, you have to be cheap and I NEVER place a market order unless the spread is very tight (like a penny), and there is a decent amount offered there, which is about never with these things. I have large orders in the $25 face at prices that aren't too higher relative to face than the $50 (you always pay for liquidity) and once in a while these get hit as somebody dumps. I like the action as you can see large players buying these more liquid $25 face things and taking out, say, 25,000 shares and shooting the price up. They aren't patient enough. Bad lovers too I expect. So I guess this was a long post, and I would like critical comments on the methodology. The securities, well, that is another thing. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145916 by Spekulatius 1 10/8/2009 10:01:42 PM # 145941 by kollmnh 0 10/9/2009 9:21:20 AM # 146050 by Scout4Value 0 10/10/2009 2:47:34 PM


	Re: Timing Problems On The Buy/Sell- Scout4Value AJ -Very nicely put! I like the writeup how you scale in. I try do the same but it's harder than it sounds. When stocks go down fast, ti feels like you are throwing money in a bonfire.Key is to come up with the max. Amount you want to put ain a certain idea first and then average down. Watch the news and if new information is available,r e-evaluate. If not stick to the plan. But again, it's easier said then done, if the market goes crazy like it did last year. Maybe sacrificing chickens will help me do so next time. Virgins are hard to come by where I live <g>. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145993 by AJSutton 0 10/9/2009 2:44:42 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? RFIL might be worth a look if it is not too small - it's only got $11 M of market cap. It's got $7M of cash, no debt, and has produced ~ $1.2M OCF in the past year. Even the latest quarter being modestly above breakeven. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145939 by tnl 0 10/9/2009 9:15:20 AM # 145981 by tnl 0 10/9/2009 1:30:44 PM # 146232 by Spekulatius 0 10/13/2009 10:09:10 AM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? i went to the RFIL board. I found it interesting that message 13 was replying to message 14. Psychic abilities at work?


	Re: Timing Problems On The Buy/Sell- Scout4Value It's interestin' how people can have different views on how to properly take a on a position. True technical traders would say that AJ's method of scaling in is precisely what one SHOULDN'T do. Instead, they buy strength once a bottom has been demonstrated (by rising prices). Of course, they do their dance w/o giving a hoot about what the company does. Fundamental analysis doesn't happen. The fundamentalist takes the view that he knows the company, can handicap the risk and feels that if the first purchase turns out to not have been a bargain a another but, lower one, will be. And so it goes. I mean, afterall, we are accumulating something we really want, right? The tech trader responds to this with "so, why would you buy a stock that is headed down? Better to pay up for it while it's rising and greatly improve your odds of making money." I've taken the "pig headed" approach of buying on the decline (PGO comes to mind) figuring that if it got cheaper it would be a better deal. I was convinced I had the fundamentals down so I disregarded the technicals. Even after being warned that the price action alone told me I was dead wrong, I continued to plow ahead. As you can guess, eventually I saw the light and realized I was letting my ego rule my position. I HAD to be right but, clearly, I wasn't. Finally, I cut and ran suffering a seven figure loss. Upon reflection, I think buying on the way up after that direction has been established (based on whatever criteria one wants to use) is the better way. That said, it's hard to do because creating a position with exponential buys in a decliner is a lot more fun. I'd start small, say, at 5-10%, just to get in the game. Once in, your focus increases. The next buy would be for double that and the next buy for double the last one. The thinking is that you want to acquire the most stock at the lowest prices. All this works great IF the stock turns around shortly after you have accumulated your truck load. If it continues south well, there are a few dozens creative uses for the word "fuck". Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145957 by dave1mn2 0 10/9/2009 10:16:30 AM


	Re: Timing Problems On The Buy/Sell- Scout4Value ~~~ True technical traders would say that AJ's method of scaling in is precisely what one SHOULDN'T do. Instead, they buy strength once a bottom has been demonstrated (by rising prices). Of course, they do their dance w/o giving a hoot about what the company does. Fundamental analysis doesn't happen. ~~~ Myth. Or at least half truth. There is more to technical trading than the mo-mo style. Its what you hear about more, its probably more visible both when it works or fails but is not the only way. ~~~ I HAD to be right but, clearly, I wasn't. ~~~ Some of the best advise I was ever given came in the form of a question. I was working on a loser, I'd studied, it should'da been good but it wasn't and it wasn't going to be any time soon. The personal investment in being right was beginning to become more expensive than the monetary. I was asked, "Would you rather be right, or make money?" ~~~ I'd start small, say, at 5-10%, just to get in the game. ~~~ For me, those are full positions, not starter size. ~~~ The next buy would be for double that and the next buy for double the last one.~~~ I know this is what the math says to do but I think it is a recipe for ruin unless you are very patient and are accommodated with extreme movement. I very rarely do this. I use tranches, plan usually on four to get to whatever percentage of total weighting I allow for that issue, which is determined in advance. If a full position is achieved, the higher up one or two tranches may be taken off at or near cost to reload ammo for trading. Markets move, thats what they do. A market going against me by 50% is actually looked forward to, more than one 50% haircut on the same issue, means I probably did something bad wrong. Gray lines but at least some lines. Blowing up, is not in my future. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145965 by Xofruitcake 0 10/9/2009 11:15:56 AM # 145969 by kollmnh 0 10/9/2009 11:59:53 AM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? The thing with AKF is that I doubt the price of it will appreciate. The co is in dire situation with little hope of turning around and change market's perception of them. So you are just clipping coupons. With the 2011's, you get lower coupons, but a 60% return in par in 2011. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145983 by xds68 0 10/9/2009 1:35:58 PM


	Re: Timing Problems On The Buy/Sell- Scout4Value If a full position is achieved, the higher up one or two tranches may be taken off at or near cost to reload ammo for trading. Markets move, thats what they do. Dave, can you expand further what you do when a position is full? So you sell some (not clear what the top one or two tranches here refer to)? Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146014 by dave1mn2 0 10/9/2009 7:34:52 PM


	Re: Timing Problems On The Buy/Sell- Scout4Value "~~~ I'd start small, say, at 5-10%, just to get in the game. ~~~ For me, those are full positions, not starter size. When I used those percentages I meant with respect to the ultimate position size, not as a % of the portfolio.


	Re: Any Long Ideas? seems like a very solid (very) little company. More cash that liabilities, mostly current assets, trading a bit below book. Annualizing PY 9 months, seems to have adequate ROE. Gross margins steady this year at 50%, even with lower sales. but illiquid, and i do not see a catalyst. Would feel better if they had not dumped the dividend, but how to monetize an investment?


	Re: Any Long Ideas? ABK Given they only have $150 mil or so at the parent, what makes you think they will be able to pay the 2011 maturity? Doesn't it depend on willingness of regulators to let the sub upstream cash? Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145988 by ikea_repairman 0 10/9/2009 2:24:48 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? ABK I agree. They may 1) request upstream 2) offer a bone to noteholders and exchange. I suppose it is in the regulator's interest not to unnecessarily force ABK to file, but allow it to upstream some cash ($20m ~ $50m?) to pay off the notes and kick the can to the next regulator in office. Need to watch the number in the next release, still. I suppose that's why they are at 60 cents. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 145996 by xds68 0 10/9/2009 2:56:08 PM


	Re: Scaling In On Crashing Sub-Debt/Preferreds- Spekulatius << If the market goes crazy like it did last year>> Right, scaling in on the buy side when something is crashing hard (liquidity crisis, BK fears) is a tougher proposition than just buying increments as the price drifts lower over a period of time. In the crash case, sometimes it is a new situation to you and you have to do some fast research to see what is out there in the stuff higher up the capital structure that is my usual target. That is where this board is particularly nice as you can find the target securities quicker and nail down the terms of the securities so you can pick and choose based on relative value. Then, if it looks OK I will buy some and then take an equal dollar amount lower, sometimes much lower, and continue that for maybe a third of what you may ultimately want on that first day, then lay off. This can be a little unsettling when you buy the second time and your first is already 20% underwater, but I feel that these things get way oversold vs. The common, so if they are off the same percentage amount as the common, that helps me stick with it. We have an advantage with the income issues in that income holders are running and it takes a while for the vultures to move in, so they sell off very hard. Beyond that, it seems that you usually have two or three days in the initial bloodbath to pick up the full position before you start to get a real bounce. Then continue watching the news and if the thing looks fairly good, look for a test of the old lows and take more if you feel the risk/reward is good enough to justify risking more bucks. If it works out you have the nicer problem of when to sell, but I have found that I need to hold off on even STARTING to scale out beyond what would seem a very nice profit (like > 100%), because when you hit a good one you want to get that 3 or 4 bagger that makes up for those ones that go to zero. At that point you have a good profit and I try to think of it as if I don't really have all that money in it (because if it has risen a lot your position is now much bigger)- so I try to say well I just have the original purchase money in it. Again you need to wring a big gain out of the winners so now the compounding is really working for you- if it doubles again, now you have a 4 bagger. So you can start with a 10% position and in the fortunate case of something that goes from $4 to $16 (like a lot of the trust preferreds do before they get to yields under 15%), you now have a 40% position, which is large but only then do I want to start the scale-out, because at that point if it has rallied that far it is probably going to eventually going back near face, although that may take a year or more. Again you are favored by the fact that income buyers are slow to return as the real junkmeisters start to look about the place you are looking to start selling, but they come in slowly. At the end, if it keeps moving up, you are selling to exactly the same class of income-oriented investors who sold it to you in the first place. Of course, these aren't the same people, they are the next crop. In looking back over the AVF case (I did the other AIG stuff too but I did more of this one), I see that I started buying this on 9/15/08 at around $8 and worked it up to 30,000 shares that first day, buying down to $6. The next day it crashed to $3 as the income holders REALLY cranked up the selling and in the next 2 days I picked up 70,000 more shares in much larger individual trades (hey, on sale at half price). That was the original AIG bad news. It rallied up to $10 after that but then sold off back to $4 in March on the general market weakness. If I hadn't already had so much of it I might have bought then, but everything was on sale. At that point I was feeling kind of stupid in not taking the profits but at least I didn't dump it. But again it rallied back to $10 with the market. But the best time to buy was in July, when it crashed back to $5 on no news at all, just Merrill saying the common might be worthless. Well duh. But at that point the goobermint was in it too far to back out, so it was a great time to add, although it didn't last long. So in looking at all of that I can see that, as usual, I was too early. Pretty funny. Chart: Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146027 by Spekulatius 1 10/10/2009 12:11:14 AM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? ABK yeah, I was looking through the Q a little, and I think if the regulators cut them some slack on upstream, they could actually hang around long enough for the collateral underlying some of the asset backed exposures to appreciate and reduce the loss expectations - there is some income coming from interest and premiums -- I think the odds are strongly in your favor on the 2011, but couldn't stomach anything beyond a small spec position for myself -- but think you're right, a BK will create a lot of noise around the sub which the regulators would prob just as soon avoid - and there could be acceleration clauses in the event of a parent BK -


	Re: Timing Problems On The Buy/Sell- Scout4Value Sorry it took so long Xo, been a full day. An over simplified and exaggerated example might be, You like something at 10 and have decided you'll buy in, up to a 5% weighting at that 10 cost but you'll give yourself some time to do it. Lets also assume the position immediately goes against you, we're also ignoring taxes and comms for now. 1/4 or $1000 bought at 10 = 100sh 1/4 or $1000 bought at 9 = 111 1/4 or $1000 bought at 8 = 125 1/4 or $1000 bought at 7 = 142 for a total of 478 sh at a cost of the 4K you committed to at the original decision. Issue goes back to 10. All with no co specific news. 478 sh @ 10 = $4780 You could sell your first tranche (or 78 sh if you want to be exact) at cost, taking some risk off and reloading ammo for a pullback. If it doesn't pull back, you still have the same position that you were willing to accept at the beginning. I don't usually put that fine a point on it but thats the idea and those buy in points are arbitrary. In real life, there would be other numbers picked for various reasons. Strong guidelines rather than etched in stone rules, the variance of which determined by any number of things, each one with its own potential to add risk or provide an edge. Lather rinse repeat. Ascending markets are tougher and require more trading discipline. Runaway markets, in either direction, are the last thing you want but most of the time, markets are in trending ranges. Runaway markets against you, obviously get painful quickly and force hard decisions but if I decide the market is wrong, I'll hold and or buy but am always mindful of position size and total capital at risk. Hope thats what you wanted. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146018 by thatsnotluck 0 10/9/2009 10:09:29 PM # 146024 by Xofruitcake 0 10/9/2009 10:48:47 PM # 146053 by AJSutton 0 10/10/2009 5:17:44 PM


	Re: Timing Problems On The Buy/Sell- Scout4Value back when i was doing regular monthly contributions to mutual funds, i used a variant of dollar cost averaging, and still use it conceptually (sort of) in building stock positions. the way i applied it to mutual funds is a had a certain base amount that i would contribute if index at all time high (call this $x at index of Z). My actual amount contributed was (Z/current index value)^2 times base amount. So if index was 90% of ATH, i would do around 120% of base amount. If 80% i would do around 150% (i am not doing the exact calc here, but did so back in the day, rounded to even $25 or whatever). the basic idea behind dollar cost averaging is that one buys more shares when price is low, fewer when the price is high. My approach exaggerated the concept. If the market was at half the ATH, i would invest 4 times the dollars and hence 8 times as many shares.


	Re: Any Long Ideas? I am trading puts - selling them on things I would be OK with owning if they were cheaper. If the stock bounces a bit, the returns annualized are pretty good. If it turns down, and I held the put, which I generally don't, at least my basis is where I would have wanted it to be had I simply bought the stock at lower prices. I also moved some CMO money to CLNY and STWD. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146029 by Spekulatius 0 10/10/2009 1:00:47 AM


	Re: Timing Problems On The Buy/Sell- Scout4Value Hope thats what you wanted. Thanks.. I like the idea..


	Re: Scaling In On Crashing Sub-Debt/Preferreds- Spekulatius Sadly, I played to much with common stocks rather than the crap debt during the meltdown/ Will be a lesson to me at the next go around. Regardless I think your scaling rules apply to common as well, at least to the less riskier ones that are unlikely to become worthless. With financials, I am extremely careful with scaling and max position size. Dave gave some good advice to determine the max. $ amount beforehand . This avoids digging too deep of a hole in case you are wrong. Good advice on waiting to scale out as well, at least once the sentiment turns away from the disaster mood. I keep on selling too early.


	Re: Any Long Ideas? - AMED What does the board think about AMED (home nursing). Looks like strong revenues trends, decent valuation, low leverage. Of course with all healthcare there is a risk of reimbursement rates but it seems well reflected in the valuation. I don;t own it but it does look interesting AMED Presentation Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146030 by SoonParted 3 10/10/2009 2:08:23 AM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? - AMED I would certainly read this before investing in AMED: http://www.citronresearch.com/index.php/2008/08/12/seeking-healthy-returns-in-amedisys-nasdaqamed/ Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146031 by Spekulatius 0 10/10/2009 3:57:46 AM # 146060 by Infringer 0 10/10/2009 7:31:16 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? - AMED Good article. It pays certainly to be careful. Having said that, the balance sheet looks better than it did last year, so it can't be all hot air. FWIW, i do own some SUNH and SKH in this space.


	Re: Timing Problems On The Buy/Sell- Scout4Value Thanks AJ I agree with you about the tactical approach I also scale in and out of positions. My problem is more that of confidence in knowing that what I am doing is the right thing. I have made lots of money when I get it right and have had my share of stocks that never came back. I know that I have made more than I have lost in the long run with these kind of plays, my accounts are within a few % points of my all time high in early '07. Perhaps it is my age and my unwillingness to lose money even when the risk reward is good. I have just become very risk adverse and it is hampering my returns. I think we are about the same age so perhaps you could elaborate a little about the mental state you put yourself into in relation to money and risk. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146057 by AJSutton 1 10/10/2009 7:13:35 PM


	Re: Timing Problems On The Buy/Sell- Dave Good detailed post. The important thing is to have a plan. Otherwise you are too subject to the tides of emotion, which will be there anyway, but you need something to keep it under control. Sometime we need to get into the feelings of gut-wrenching fear when things really go to hell- and how to deal with that. These days I have seen so much of it that it becomes more and more like a game, which is good.


	Re: Timing Problems On The Buy/Sell- Scout4Value << I think we are about the same age so perhaps you could elaborate a little about the mental state you put yourself into in relation to money and risk. >> This is an interesting question which I need to revisit. It will be a long post so sorry about that, but little is simple, even the choice of a beer (earlier thread). So first I look at cash needs. I am 61 and pretty healthy by the grace of God, so far. My wife is the same and will probably outlive me. We have a daughter who has her own money, is very clever and well-educated, and I feel it would be bad to dump much money on her as it would destroy her ambition to some degree. We travel a good deal but don't spend all that much, our Mexican place is is paid for, so income requirements are something around $100K of after-tax cash, if that. With just ourselves to pay for, we do about anything we want, but then we have long training in frugality and I even though we spend a good deal of money on what I consider fancy travel, I am getting more and more against actually buying STUFF, let alone big ticket items like real estate, boats, cars. So really $100K after-tax would do it. We do have a day maid, but this is Mexico, and that is less than the Valium we would otherwise need to keep from killing each other. We are taking distributions on all of our pension plans, where 95% of the assets are, of about 4% a year, keeping with a schedule the IRS sanctions for early withdrawals with no penalties. This percentage creeps up, and next year it will be 4.2%. I plan to continue this until age 65 and then raise it to get more money out of the IRAs, when the early distribution penalties go by-by. I feel these percentages are pretty conservative, at least until you get to later ages. Maybe I will just stay with the schedule and let it ramp up (around 7% at age 70). Anyway last year we took out about $400K, paid the taxes (U.S. Only, no state), and gave the rest away to non-deductible stuff- people. I think I got a whole lot more pleasure out of that, even though I don't know these people, than I would from a $200K boat, and I don't have to take care of a boat. I can rent a boat and I don't have to be the captain. So basically we have way too much money for requirements, even with continued gifting. At this point I feel I can take increased risk because if I lost half of the total it wouldn't affect anything. I like to surf, swim, snorkel, eat out, oggle the girlz, and that stuff but I need a job and this is it, so I need this game and it has to be for real stakes or I couldn't get engaged. So in these circumstances if you liked the game, you would keep risking. If you didn't like it, you would feel you had done the job, move to something more conservative (but WHAT?), and do other things with your time. As for me, really, logically, I would increase risk if I could increase risk-adjusted return, but I think I am in the thin tail of that already, and bigger positions make it harder. But I think the real issue is that if you are right at what you think you will need, with a cushion, until you did, plus some to leave to the kids (if any), what then? I was at around $1 MM, not enough, at the end of 2002, after a bad year. So logically I went for risk, it worked out, and by the end of 2006 it was $3 MM. Using the 4% on that, that is $120K out, pay taxes, have around the $100K, all you need is to keep it stable and make Treasury rates and you keep the nut. So at that point a more rational person would pull risk. However I am addicted to risk I suppose and felt pretty rich, and anyway NFI was in the crosshairs, so I ramped up risk to the max and 2007 was my my best-ever year, up 150%+, not without a little risk here and there. After that I obviously had too much- lose half of it, that's OK. 2008 34%, on the 10 year average. 2009 so far 48%. At the 10 year rate it doubles every 2 years or so in 10 years that is $300 million. With that you could do something pretty cool, let the wife figure out what. So do as I say, not as I do. I am a lucky person, and for every lucky one, there is an unlucky one. Anyway at this point I see no reason to change as this is starting to get fun on the possibility of giving away a real lot of money, doing something for the world that has done so much for me. Payback. Besides, my wife can do all the work. I will continue on the other job. She can stay in Cozumel and manage the foundation or whatever, and I can go to Kaua'i on and off and surf until the final wipeout. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146088 by skymtn 0 10/11/2009 6:01:37 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? - AMED Rollups can also increase future margins through acquisition accounting. Using the receivables example, here are the sequence of entries (simplified). Purchase DR Goodwill CR Reserve for uncollectible receivables Later Book Cooking DR Reserver for uncollectible receivables CR Gross Margins


	Re: Timing Problems On The Buy/Sell- Scout4Value A New Zealand surfer escaped death in the Samoan tsunami by riding out the giant waves that surged over the Pacific Island. Hospitality student Chris Nel was surfing on the south coast of Savai'i island when the 8.3 magnitude quake struck on Wednesday morning, The Dominion Post reported. He had been in the water with four other New Zealand surfers and an Australian when the first signs of the tsunami appeared. "All of a sudden the water went real weird, it kind of glassed off and got real lumpy, then we started moving real quick, getting sucked out to sea. "It was pretty scary looking back and seeing the reef completely dried up. It looked like a volcanic riverbed - it was just gone." A "big-as spurt of water" then hit the shore, Nel said. "I was thinking, `this is it, we're going to get washed away and smashed into the jungle'." The surfers struggled to reach the shore and they lay on the surfboards as more wave surges swept in, riding them out and trying not to get smashed on the beach. "After about 35 or 45 minutes of floating around we managed to time it between a surge to get to land through the reef channel." By the time Mr Nel returned, much of the surf camp he had been staying at had been destroyed. "A lot of my stuff got washed out to sea and I found one of my surfboards in the jungle." He left Samoa on Thursday, flying back to Wellington wearing a pair of jeans he had found in the jungle.


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK BK is worth a shot. It's a well managed trust bank do it doesn't have the credit loss issues other banks have. They have a large interest earning portfolio with unrealized losses that i think will look better due to spread contraction. Based on the numbers I have been seeing it trades at around 12x 2010 earnings which is cheap based on historical norms for trust bank. I think it's well managed. Got a tracking position at 27.5$ and i will add on weakness. Thoughts welcome. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146236 by x 1 10/13/2009 10:54:32 AM # 146246 by Infringer 0 10/13/2009 11:48:09 AM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK Maybe this will seem lazy, but what about Berkshire? Also a well-managed company, it hasn't really gone up this year - despite a number of good moves (various debt/preferred moves). Many of their holdings are higher than at the beginning of the year, and of course their derivative positions are doing better. Of course it's not going to make you tons of money, but it seems to me you can get a very good money manager for essentially no fees and something around (less than?) NAV. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146238 by tnl 0 10/13/2009 11:14:04 AM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK you believe BRK trades below NAV? My impression is it trades below the IV as computed by the Berkie loyalists (just as DNDN and most other biotechs trade below the fair value as computed by their loyalists), but BRK has always seemed to me to trade pretty rich (i did buy some for the first time ever within the past 12 months though, and still hold the shares). i thought the BRK story is that you pay up, but get a management team (for another few years) that has demonstrated an ability to allocate capital in a superior manner and do also that views shareholders as partners rather than rape targets. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146242 by hydono 0 10/13/2009 11:30:52 AM # 146245 by x 0 10/13/2009 11:46:04 AM # 146250 by dave1mn2 0 10/13/2009 11:55:02 AM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BRK ...BRK has always seemed to me to trade pretty rich... FWIW, BRK is now trading around 1.27 x estimated current book value. Historically this is low, seen last in 1987. BRK's advantage is his access to debt markets that individual investors don't have. And he doesn't have to report his debt transactions like stock purchases/sales -- giving him a little breathing room to change positions. Long BRK. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146247 by Infringer 1 10/13/2009 11:50:50 AM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK you believe BRK trades below NAV? My impression is it trades below the IV as computed by the Berkie loyalists (just as DNDN and most other biotechs trade below the fair value as computed by their loyalists), but BRK has always seemed to me to trade pretty rich (i did buy some for the first time ever within the past 12 months though, and still hold the shares). >> I don't know - I've never bought BRK before except as an admission ticket to their meeting. I recall people (maybe they were the BRK loyalists) saying that BRK was below liquidation value earlier; Since then, it seems to me that BRK has stayed flat while obvious assets (their various financial investments, debt investments, short SPY, etc) have likely increased in value. I do believe that BRK's book value likely underestimates real NAV; And that also that BRK's NAV has increased over the last quarter. If nothing else, their debt payments are generating lots of new cash relative to last year. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146249 by Infringer 0 10/13/2009 11:54:29 AM # 146253 by zzzyx 0 10/13/2009 12:13:03 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK I like the company but not the price. How do you expect to get an outsized gain when starting with something which is probably fairly priced? Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146264 by Spekulatius 0 10/13/2009 12:59:15 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BRK I'm 12% BRK and another 1% WSC, a BRK subsidiary. Wabuffo likes related company DJCO (Munger managed). Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146374 by wabuffo 0 10/13/2009 8:50:22 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK Unless BRK has substantial Japan and Taiwan exposure, this hurricane season should be wildly profitable.


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK ~~~ also that views shareholders as partners rather than rape targets. ~~~ Thanks for the opportunity to re-tell a little story. From a previous post, "When I met him a few yrs back, I thanked him for treating shareholders as partners. He looked at me, almost confused like and said "But you are my partners." Maybe the meaningfulness of that short interaction looses something in these written words but the body language, facial expression and tonal quality of his response made me certain that thinking of it in any other way, would have been unnatural for him." I think that is a very big deal and won't go away when WEB does. Its core to the culture of the company. Been the largest position since 96. Nothing is allowed anything close to its weighting.


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK >>>I recall people (maybe they were the BRK loyalists) saying that BRK was below liquidation value earlier; Since then, it seems to me that BRK has stayed flat while obvious assets (their various financial investments, debt investments, short SPY, etc) have likely increased in value. <<< My notes say BRK holds investments/share of $77k, and has pre-tax earnings/share of non-insurance subs of $3.9k. I took these notes after the 1st quarter I believe - will be interesting to see what investments/share are at q3. At $100k/share, there ain't much premium here....like none. Why not? Maybe because it's not in any of Weasel's beloved indexes?


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK I don't think it will generate an outsized gain but it should beat the market. BK is trading at 11-12x forward earnings. This is cheap for a business that is mostly transactional and fee based. They made the mistake stretching for yield with they bond portfolio (which is cheap float just like an insurer) and got hit by rising spreads, which now are reversing to the mean. I started a small position at 27.5$ a few days ago but I am willing to up the ante if the price drops. BRK is a totally different aninmal since it's insurance and managed their own money and while I agree that it's probably somewhat undervalued i don't think it's a screaming buy either. I'd buy more around 3000$/share. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146269 by batman10023 0 10/13/2009 1:27:13 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK every credit "crisis" finds that BK ends up with a lot more credit/rate risk than we originally thought. first the airlines, then telecom, then abs, now IG credit. i just feel like they continually stretch for income outside of their core expertise. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146290 by Spekulatius 0 10/13/2009 2:25:02 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK >> every credit "crisis" finds that BK ends up with a lot more credit/rate risk than we originally thought.<< No argument here but I think this credit crisis is over. Or at least that is what the market action suggests. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146294 by batman10023 0 10/13/2009 2:27:46 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK i have heard this said a few times before since feb 2007. I suspect they will be wrong once again. actually, my 2004,2005,2006 years were my best years in the market so if we go back to that environment AND i can repeat those returns i'll be happy. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146306 by tnl 0 10/13/2009 2:50:44 PM # 146322 by Spekulatius 0 10/13/2009 3:16:47 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK wow. so you are up like 150-200% this year, and it does not even rank in your top three years?? my 2004, 2005 and 2006 were indifferent at best, 2007 was nice, 2008 the worse year of my investment life and 2009 the best by far, even with terrible results during first 9-10 weeks. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146310 by batman10023 0 10/13/2009 2:55:00 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK sorry, if i had done 2009 results in 2004,2005,2006 i'd be writing this from some beach in the caribean. my 2004 was 104%, 2005 was 84% and 2006 was 96%. still not smart enough to get a job though. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146320 by Xofruitcake 0 10/13/2009 3:15:00 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK still not smart enough to get a job though heh heh with this kind of return, I am not sure why you want to work for anyone... I recalled a while back you mentioned a goal of supporting a 200K yearly expense target.. You should be able to reach that goal with only a few more years of investing and then you can buy us beer on the beach that you own... I can show you all the tricks that make your wife thing you are extremely busy in the market while you are you just goofing off and have a good time 8-)).. I have a lot of practice on that one... Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146329 by flipper58 0 10/13/2009 3:26:19 PM # 146335 by batman10023 0 10/13/2009 3:45:28 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK Any idea why BK is so weak today on a dull day? There must be a "sell" out there.


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK Marry another wife and put her to work is also another suggestion. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146354 by Xofruitcake 0 10/13/2009 6:14:57 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK i am 36 years old. No way i can stop working. Can't go from 80 hours a week to zero just like that. i'd want 200k post tax so assuming 5% post tax returns (aggressive) i would need 10mm. Not there yet. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146357 by Xofruitcake 0 10/13/2009 6:21:29 PM # 146407 by alertmeipp 0 10/14/2009 12:15:16 AM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK Marry another wife and put her to work is also another suggestion Except that she is my sugar mama 8-)).. All the trading was done in her IRA account (hence all the profit over the years).. I think I need to stick by my CEO and just hope that she doesn't check her account too often...


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK i am 36 years old. No way i can stop working. Can't go from 80 hours a week to zero just like that heh heh, can I introduce you to some additive video/computer game? Seriously this is an issue everyone face with before retirement (just some is earlier than the other).. You'll be surprised with some of the thing that you will find enjoy doing when you have time... I thought I would have problem adjusting to staying at home given that I am an aderaline junkie and I really like my last job.. But I have no regret staying home for the last 3 1/2 + years (and so far more profitable also...).. It is not an all or nothing type of thing.. Once you have the time, you can juggle your time any way you want it... Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146377 by flipper58 0 10/13/2009 9:16:03 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BRK Wabuffo likes related company DJCO (Munger managed). I do. But I'm not sure its undervalued anymore. For a brief moment in time, right after the May earnings release, it was cheap at $42. I think the market has caught on to the fact that Munger did a one-time redeployment of DJCO cash into equities during the March lows and is up over 160% on that investment thru June quarter-end. Wabuffo Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146392 by batman10023 0 10/13/2009 10:43:12 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK "" am 36 years old. No way i can stop working. Can't go from 80 hours a week to zero just like that "" I started trading at home at 26 years old. My Mother Inlaw had the same reaction you did. "Who's going to pay your salary?" And now I support her sorry butt....poetic justice. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146396 by batman10023 0 10/13/2009 10:47:13 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BRK i agree. i sold my DJCO at 56 and it's one of the few sells that have been pretty good. I guess exiting my small cit pref is the best of them all.


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK my mother and father in law would like me to get a job as well... Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146403 by dave1mn2 7 10/13/2009 11:41:57 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK When I decided to leave regular employment, start the rental buis and invest full time, I caught flak from everyone but my wife. She was a little apprehensive at first but also knew my track record. Everyone else had no real clue,no matter how I explained it. Its like they couldn't believe its possible. I get the same from the bankers until they actually go through the records. Several friends and family flat out said that I was too young to retire. For a while that grated pretty hard since I do not consider working the kind of hours, no matter how much I enjoy it, as being retired and of course, my package is not yet fully made. I very much enjoyed my work and some of those I worked with but am very bad at politics and think that the work should stand on its own merits. This of course does not sit well with those that are more adept in politics than actual production of usefulness in the endeavor of the moment and anyone that can flop down reams of indisputable documentation (which I did do, twice) of both outsized production and quality of that production is perceived as a threat. I didn't have a glass ceiling, mine was made of iron. No regrets, happier, more prosperous, I love the commute and the dress code :-) Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146406 by batman10023 0 10/13/2009 11:58:52 PM # 146469 by x 0 10/14/2009 11:12:00 AM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK i would not mind retiring at 45. Unless we can't get a decent paying job and/or lose all the money in the market i think we can do that. But that's 9 years away. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146408 by dave1mn2 1 10/14/2009 12:40:35 AM # 146414 by Xofruitcake 1 10/14/2009 5:23:10 AM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK >i'd want 200k post tax so assuming 5% post tax returns (aggressive) i would need 10mm. Not there yet. why do u need 10mm@5% to support 200k expense? Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146428 by batman10023 0 10/14/2009 8:19:54 AM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK ~~~ and/or lose all the money in the market ~~~ This is where you and I differ greatly. You are very good. In what you do, I am not in your class. You make very outsized returns but have extremely high turnover and I would think, high taxes. You also by your statement, have to consider the possibility of total loss. I once made 27 consecutive, correct investing/trading decisions only to break even after making one big loser. Now, I have much more modest but consistently outsized returns and very low taxes by some strategic takings, retaining unrealized gains and tax deductible expenditure flexibility that builds equity and marketability on the rentals but do not have to consider the possibility of starting over from a total loss. In your 30s such a thing may not be so bad, at some point, you'll want to adopt a different strategy.


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK i would not mind retiring at 45. Unless we can't get a decent paying job and/or lose all the money in the market i think we can do that. But that's 9 years away. Heh heh, retirement is just a state of mind.. Plenty of people retire on the job (I have plenty of ex-coworker did that when we were king of all thing computer). I prefer to think of it as I have a change of job and I am working for myself now. Part of the benefit of the new job (retirement) is having freedom to do things that I like at the time that I choose. And the new job consist of a lot of small projects. And I am my own boss so I will judge how well I do on all the little projects everyday . We still need to make a living and pay our bill. But there is no law saying that we have to work 8 to 5 or 8 to 8 everyday... After my retirement, my favorite things to do is talking to my kids, surfing the web looking for investment idea, playing chess (I suck) / video game (I suck on that too), listening to my CEO talk about her day and take her to lunch somewhere everyday (and someday it is a 2+hours lunch), go to the gym, cooking dinner, grocery shopping in the middle of a weekday, and lately travelling.. Most of the things on the list are not very rewarding financially but yet I enjoy them a lot. And I wouldn't be able to do most of them if I were working 8-5 now...


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK i meant pre-tax.


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK Several friends and family flat out said that I was too young to retire. >> How long ago was that - and have they changed their opinion? Do you consider yourself "retired" - or just a small business owner? Seems like a fair number of people on this board have gone that route (became individual investors at a relatively young age). I always like hearing you guys' stories since I'm on that route myself, but just starting out. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146492 by flipper58 0 10/14/2009 12:55:13 PM # 146496 by dave1mn2 0 10/14/2009 1:26:42 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK 98% of family and friends I found will never understand trading at home. The masses are not programed to think like that I guess. I did largely to be with my kids growing up and interest in not dealing with commuting to offices where bosses will try and steer into what they feel you should do. Being totally independent means a lot less conflicts of interest. With all the information you could ever want now online means major firms have a lot less to offer. You are also not stuck with dealing with ONE firm for your transactions. A key for me. In the end I was never interested in being super rich. This has offered me free-rein on what I want (or don't want )to work on and this was most important to me. I realize this is not for most hence the World's puzzling my career. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146551 by hydono 0 10/14/2009 6:28:47 PM # 146612 by AJSutton 0 10/15/2009 2:56:00 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK ~~~ How long ago was that ~~~ I'd been working towards it as a goal for, seems like forever but when you start with nothing, it takes a while to build up your stash. I was seriously considering making the change in 03. My articles of incorporation are dated 2004. ~~~ and have they changed their opinion? ~~~ I guess but many still don't understand what I do. I think, they think I have one of those red light, green light things or just lucky gambling. Few understand the amount of work or discipline it takes but thats getting better. None thought I could do what I do on the remodels by myself but they've seen with their own eyes ... Mostly its still a kind of disbelief. Its funny in a sad sort of way. I don't hold secrets but they don't listen. ~~~ Do you consider yourself "retired" ~~~ Hell no. I work my ass off, its just on my terms. ~~~ or just a small business owner? ~~~ Right, the L.L.C. Is registered as an investment co. Lots of leeway there. ~~~ Seems like a fair number of people on this board have gone that route (became individual investors at a relatively young age). I always like hearing you guys' stories since I'm on that route myself, but just starting out. ~~~ I managed my Mom's estate for about 5 yrs during a long terminal illness and still manage a family farm but running other people's money for hire is not something I'm interested in. Some want to buy into my co. Its flattering but I want no part of that either. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146498 by x 0 10/14/2009 1:36:52 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK None thought I could do what I do on the remodels by myself but they've seen with their own eyes ... >> This is going to be a bit of a tangent, but, what do you think about building your own home? I've heard people throw around the number $100/sf for construction, so when I do the simple math on homes vs land + $100/sf in the area, it seems to me that land + $100/sf is cheaper. And you get a new home. That you designed. I'm pretty much a numbskull when it comes to anything homebuilding, so of course I would hire a general contractor - I just don't understand what the tradeoffs are for doing something like that. Is most of your money from remodeling and selling/renting homes, or from the stock market? Do you still have a "day job" then? Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146500 by dave1mn2 0 10/14/2009 2:09:31 PM # 146506 by doggydogworld 0 10/14/2009 2:23:33 PM # 146508 by Xofruitcake 0 10/14/2009 2:26:55 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK ~~~ This is going to be a bit of a tangent, but, what do you think about building your own home? I've heard people throw around the number $100/sf for construction, so when I do the simple math on homes vs land + $100/sf in the area, it seems to me that land + $100/sf is cheaper. And you get a new home. That you designed. I'm pretty much a numbskull when it comes to anything homebuilding, so of course I would hire a general contractor - I just don't understand what the tradeoffs are for doing something like that. ~~~ :-) Having started in the trades, then getting a degree and then many years of various Engineering and Construction mgmt. Experience, I can tell you that one of the most under estimated and under respected things in this world, is the difficulty of "building your own home" :-) X, I studied architecture but just bought an existing home. There are times when it is more favorable to do the other but the glut makes that time not now. I could go on for pages but it would be faster for you to ask someone who has gone through the joyfull experience. Better have a real solid marriage too :-) ~~~ Is most of your money from remodeling and selling/renting homes, or from the stock market? ~~~ Stock market, rolled into junkers to fix up and then rent, provides the everday money, helps gobs with IRS legitamacy and holds some cap gains. The rest is in the mkt. Maybe half n half right now but it all came from the mkt. And some inheritance seed money but I doubled that during my mgmt of it. ~~~ Do you still have a "day job" then? ~~~ Hmmm. No. As mentioned several times. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146503 by FairValue 0 10/14/2009 2:19:40 PM # 146504 by Infringer 0 10/14/2009 2:20:45 PM # 146505 by hobbs_o 0 10/14/2009 2:22:29 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK Before building your own house... Try a "simple" kitchen or bathroom remodel. If you play GC on that job, it'll have you tearing your hair out. Actually my wife did that. I still have all my hair. Hiring a GC just puts another layer of screwing you into the equation. Subcontractors screw you, and the GC screws you. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146532 by skymtn 0 10/14/2009 4:41:49 PM # 146619 by AJSutton 0 10/15/2009 4:04:10 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK There are also intangibles. Having mature landscaping is one thing which has a lot of value for usage, but little when looking at cost models. Window coverings, having the construction bugs worked out, etc. Are others. I would be very hesitant to buy a new house as it remains a money pit which needs both time and money to turn into a home.


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BRKA/B I will change this subject line and link a seeking alpha est for 3Q http://seekingalpha.com/article/164212-berkshires-q3-book-value-a-back-of-the-envelope-estimate Actually he might have missed the gain in the GS warrants (2B?) and of course the market hasn't looked back since so everything is higher. I think BRKB should trade more like 3500-4000, and higher if the operating companies perk back up. Of course if the market dumps (HA) or anything happens to WEB it might head south again. BUT, a HUGE 3Q is in the bag.


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK what do you think about building your own home? The first try is for messing up, the second try is for learning and the third try is the charm. So plan to build three houses before settling down. I've known many people who built custom homes. Once you know what you're doing you can save money by doing some high-value stuff yourself (e.g. Wiring, plumbing) and hiring good subs you've worked with before do the rest. I've also known people who bought land and hired a general contractor to do everything. Some of those people are happy with their house but none got a bargain. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146511 by x 0 10/14/2009 2:53:10 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK I've heard people throw around the number $100/sf for construction, so when I do the simple math on homes vs land + $100/sf in the area, it seems to me that land + $100/sf is cheaper. A lot of the saving come from the sweat equity.. One of my relative builded 2 houses back to back within 3 yr back in the late 70 and earlier 80 in SF. In each case, he bought a house in S.F, demolish the house on the lots and build 3 unit flats on the land.. Financing is pretty tough that construction loan are qualify differently than normal mortgage and bank wouldn't release money until a certain construction milestone is met (so a lot of project and money management there).. Also the General contractor can be hell to deal with. In his case, his GM want more money in the middle of both projects (that was when housing price was moving pretty fast, so the GM wants a cut in the potential profit).. And he went on site everyday to make sure work are complete as he wanted them (apparently his GM didn't listen very well). He started by taking a blue print on a pretty standard flat unit, then he started to modify them.. I think it took him and his wife 3-4 months to go around all the open house, measure the size of each room etc to finalize the design. And then he worked out a deal with the contractor that he bought all the tiles, kitchen appliance, sink, facuet etc (contractor gave them a budget and refund part of the mone for that purpose). I think their consturction was late a couple months and took about 10+months to finish.. He basically has a full time job during that 10+ months.. He think all the work is worth it since he wouldn't be able to afford the flat otherwise and he think he saved about 200K on each of them (for a total 600K +- budget to builde each of those 2 flats and that is late 1970 early 1980 dollars). He was basically financial independent after he builded both house in his early 30s when the housing and rental market take off in SF after he builded his house. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146514 by flipper58 0 10/14/2009 3:09:48 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK OK, I get the idea from multiple replies - it's a lot harder than it sounds. And I'm inept mechanically, so I won't even mess around trying. Is there an ideal age to buy a house (considering that their price drops over time)? I take it from Infringer's comments that new houses actually need more maintenance than a house that someone else has lived in for a few years? Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146512 by ronp01 0 10/14/2009 3:04:08 PM # 146516 by FairValue 0 10/14/2009 3:21:24 PM # 146528 by dave1mn2 0 10/14/2009 4:08:24 PM # 146546 by Xofruitcake 0 10/14/2009 5:54:28 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK A new home, if constructed properly with good products should require almost no mtnc. For a number of years. Products such as hardy plank on the exterior as well as vinyl soffets and facia, with a good house wrap and good interior workmanship on doors, windows etc. Should last many years without attention. Obviously getting quality plumbing, electrical, and heat and AC is important, but I would much prefer a new home if I know the construction is of good quality. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146515 by flipper58 1 10/14/2009 3:13:44 PM # 146650 by AJSutton 1 10/15/2009 6:52:15 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK I just spent $155/sf for a nicely built home in rural CT. Not including land. Not off the wall materials but mostly nice cherry, American and Brazilian for the interior. 2 story with great room and 3 car gargage. I hired a small time builder with a great reputation. Barely went by when the construction was happening and worked this job instead and earned most of the money here to pay for the house. I assume if I built it myself it would have fallen down now with me underneath the pile, dead ;-)) So no contest.


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK ""almost no mtnc. For a number of years"" The materials today are fantastic. Cement based sliding with baked paint, vinyl coated trim board, plastic decks and rails. Hard vinyl window case coating. Almost no natural material out in the weather to cause problems. Important in damp wet rural CT. And lazy owner like me.... Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146520 by ronp01 0 10/14/2009 3:24:24 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK You have to know your area, research neighborhoods (you can't depend on a real estate agent to tell you these things - many haven't been in an area that long), know who the major builders were/are, go to open houses and get a sense for what went into the guts of the house. Check foundations, floor joists, etc. Generally pre 1950s (Levitt boom) is going to be higher quality for stuff below 500K in my area Midatlantic, eg. After 1950s it's kinda difficult to figure who the fly by night builders were, so some below 500K are good and some are more problematic. Generally higher priced homes (over 500K) were built by more reputable builders, so you can be a little less worried. Anything pre 1930 and you should have a trusted home inspector, IMO.


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK Also inmportant in a high humidity state like Fla. Cement board (hardy plank) is a great product. The cement base gets harder over time, is fireproof, rot resistant, and bug proof. Hard to cut and install, need a diamond sawblade to cut, and a good nailgun to hang but it is excellent siding.


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK ~~~ Is there an ideal age to buy a house (considering that their price drops over time)? ~~~ They aren't like cars. A well built and maintained home in a good neighborhood doesn't drop in value because its used. Settlement or heaving issues, if there are to be any, will generally make themselves known within the first doz or so years. Usually more soon than that. That alone is worth a lot. Add in any other deficiencies that might be disguised by excitement and the new car smell, that would show by then and you've taken a bunch of risk out of the deal. If you look at the ridge line and its straight, its no guarantee but a good indicator. If swaybacked, run away. Look at brickwork very closely. Flashing and drainage issues can have delayed effects. Some new products and techniques are great, some older stuff is better. If looking at older buildings, beware of asbestos anywhere, or lead, fresh water piping. I'm qualified but always hire a licensed inspector. His seal carries more weight than my bitching and he has never failed to earn his fee. Foolish not to use one. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146530 by x 0 10/14/2009 4:13:17 PM # 146534 by Infringer 0 10/14/2009 5:05:47 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK Haha, OK I don't even know half the words you are using. Ridge Line, Swayback. I'll be lucky if I can identify a brick, let alone inspect it ( ... Yes, yes, this is a brick ... And here too! it's reddish brown!) I will definitely hire a licensed inspector; How would I identify a good one?? I can ask him if various materials are bricks, but beyond that I have no clue. I think I am straying too far from the board's intended purpose so ... Feel free to ignore me :)


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK "Hiring a GC just puts another layer of screwing you into the equation." Maybe a little broad from my experience. Like any other 'profession', there's good ones and there's the rest. Most of my past customers treat me like family - actually in one will - and my biggest problem is gracefully declining worked that's referred my way when I don't like the prospective customer or their expectations. As a follow up to Dave's "try a 'simple' :-) kitchen or bathrom remodel may I suggest you try a simple root canal first just to test your patience level. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146541 by FairValue 0 10/14/2009 5:31:22 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK 5-10 years old is what I consider ideal for a house with modern conveniences. All but the most subtle (or long term) construction defects will already have manifested themselves, and in most cases have been corrected by the current owners. One thing I will not touch is a house with a bad slab, and even if cracks are not evident under the carpet or flooring, the home inspector leveling check will detect the telltale signs of settling. This time period also gives the landscaping time to mature. Let the other guy do all the work and watch the bare plants grow into something worthwhile. I'd rather have the plants worthwhile when I move in than spend 5 years doing work on a barren yard. Older houses need massive electrical and plumbing upgrades. Solid houses from 1900 - 1930 are generally built very well and structurally sound (watch out for "Dutch" colonials which skimp on support beams, and 3 season bungalows). The 1930-1960 period is characterized by very shoddy construction and often have leaky basements. Parts of the 60s and 70s used aluminum for electrical wire. This is a fire hazard to be avoided. Each house is different and needs to be judged by itself. One which is built to be quality from the start usually remains. Tract homes generally reflect the era in which they are built.


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK It's too bad that we haven't crossed paths in order to improve my impression. You're not in the Midatlantic area are you? :) I guess it's kinda like mortgage brokers. Lots of bad ones, some good ones, you just have to find them. I should say that my experience comes from wanting to do the remodels on the cheap, which means I (or my wife) bear much of the diligence work. The suggestion of the "simple" kitchen or bath remodel was my suggestion - jokingly too. Seems like lots of things can go wrong even in the "simple" jobs. Actually our worst experience was getting a deck put in. Guy doing the work was the flakeiest dude I have ever seen. We had to call him every other days "When are you coming..." Terrible. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146547 by Infringer 0 10/14/2009 5:58:42 PM # 146555 by skymtn 1 10/14/2009 7:24:23 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK Is there an ideal age to buy a house (considering that their price drops over time)? Depend on the reason of wanting a house... If it is nesting instinct then get one asap. However, if it is for investment purpose, age is really not important. You pretty much has to assume local housing will appreciate at least some over time to make buying worthwhile over renting. That in term will bring in all the employment growth, good school district, desirable wether etc. Kind of questions about the area you interested in buying the house to get a better gauge on the appreciation potential... I am in the reverse situation.. My house is too big for us now that both kids graduated (well, son is doing his final quarter in Japan.. So technically not graduate until 1/1).. So we are debating if we should sell our house. Financially it boils down to how much money can I made with the house proceed? How much rent we need to pay for a rental? What kind of rate will house appreciate (or depreciate) over time? And how often we will be moving? It is not an easy set of questions to answer. Everyone will have their own answers .... Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146549 by Infringer 0 10/14/2009 6:14:20 PM # 146550 by batman10023 0 10/14/2009 6:17:36 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK <<Actually our worst experience was getting a deck put in. Guy doing the work was the flakeiest dude I have ever seen. We had to call him every other days "When are you coming..." Terrible.>> What were you after, price or convenience? When I lived in NJ, I hired a guy who was really great. Emergency work was his first priority since it paid the best. Since I was paying below market rates and getting a really good worker to boot, that was fine with me. My work was his fill-in for when higher paying work was not available. All I asked was that he put in at least one full day a week at my place. Sometimes he would call and say that he couldn't this week due to workload, and that was OK. It was mutually beneficial as he was assured of a full work week and I was assured of quality work at a bargain price, albeit not at my desired schedule. I could have paid more and had the work done according to my desired schedule. I would hire him again in a second.


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK << My house is too big for us now that both kids graduated (well, son is doing his final quarter in Japan.. So technically not graduate until 1/1)..>> My nephew has been going to summer school in Japan for the last few years. During those summer school sessions, he learns how to kick Gaijin ass with martial arts and also advance his math and science skills several grades above his US level. << So we are debating if we should sell our house. Financially it boils down to how much money can I made with the house proceed?>> Disagree unless you want to move into the renter ranks. There is a dual decision: What can you make?, and What can you buy? Both the buy and the sell side prices are depressed from levels of 3 years ago, probably netting to zero difference. The biggest question is "what do you want?" I'd like a large acreage with fruit trees, a dirt bike track, and opportunities for 4-wheeling. I'd also like a lake and a tractor. Your wants are probably different. Figure out what you want and do it. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146552 by michsteve09 0 10/14/2009 6:34:42 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK don't sell the house. Why take the headache and the rent increase risk. Plus, a home is a home. i suspect you are doing fine so maybe this is really just for the space. So then downsize to a smaller house.


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK 98% of family and friends I found will never understand trading at home. Reminds me of the story of two kids talking at school in Connecticut. First kid says "What's your father do?" Second kid says "He's a fireman, what's your father do?" First kid says "Nothing. He's a writer"


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK If I were to build a house it will be with acreage for farming and hunting. I would like it away from civilization and would go with an A-frame for low maintenance.


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK "When are you coming..." My internal mantra has always been Under promise, over deliver. I missed some sweet - on the surface anyway - opportunities because some one else had made cost, time, inconvenience promises I knew couldn't be met. If your not careful it's easy to get sucked into that and often caused by customer working one party against the other. I wouldn't play as I always had more business than I could handle anyway. I'm certain your complaint is the number one bitch people have with contractors - We hired him and didn't see him again for 2 months - which coincidentially is the number one complaint that folks have with their Realtor. One other thing I was willing to do which most guys with a brain won't is to let the homeowner work along side me. Frustrating at times but it really gave them a sense of what ACTUALLY goes into the process - especially the the forward planning involved. It also gave them a credible basis for taking credit, which is no small issue.


	Re: Trading At Home- Flipper People think people who watch stocks a lot of the day are all day traders. They here these stories about somebody going nuts and shooting up some place and that is their benchmark. The people I know who have an idea of my long term record and the kind of situations I'm looking at (including shorting/puts, which people also don't understand) think you have something special, when a lot of it is knowledge gained over a long period of time. Add some risk tolerance to that and you can make something on the margin. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146621 by flipper58 1 10/15/2009 4:20:51 PM # 146625 by flipper58 0 10/15/2009 4:28:54 PM


	Re: Building Your Own House- Dave, X << Subcontractors screw you, and the GC screws you.>> For more work and pain, I suggest building in Mexico. We did that and I think we have 3 man-years of 10 hour days in the 2 houses. We were the contractors so everybody was paid individually by us. We got custom metal and wooden custom furniture built by different people/shops and that was that for subcontractors- minor in our masonry construction. Because of about zero standarization you need more or less daily supervision and that is pretty much full-time as you are designing as you go, especially with the variety of stuff we came up with. We had a room plan and that was about it, as a detailed plan would have been unused except by us (for humor). If your marriage survives that, you are stuck for life. A little thing like a minor infidelity or blowing a big hunk of family money gambling would be just a ripple, comparatively. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146648 by dave1mn2 0 10/15/2009 6:39:41 PM


	Re: Trading At Home- Flipper ""People think people who watch stocks a lot of the day are all day traders. They here these stories about somebody going nuts and shooting up some place and that is their benchmark"" You mean this is not normal for you guys? Oh shit.


	Re: Trading At Home- Flipper ""The people I know who have an idea of my long term record and the kind of situations I'm looking at (including shorting/puts, which people also don't understand) think you have something special, when a lot of it is knowledge gained over a long period of time"" All stemming out of pure jealousy. Stories of winters in Hawaii watching babes, cocktails and making a lot of money. Who wouldn't be jealous? You aptly make it clear by your life they are losers and they know it. They start with praise but underneath they want to rip you apart. Well so be it ;-))


	Re: Building Your Own House- Dave, X Building boxes isn't too hard so long as the roofs work, the foundation solid and the spans aren't too great but when you fill them with plumbing, wiring, HVAC, and expect them to last very long or look and feel how you had in mind, its kinda tuff without a plan :-) Bet that was fun. Did the second house go more smoothly? Doing it again but on the same budget, what would you do differently? Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146649 by michsteve09 0 10/15/2009 6:46:45 PM # 146653 by Infringer 0 10/15/2009 7:11:37 PM


	Re: Building Your Own House- Chinese Drywall Watch out when you buy or build your home about the material that goes in it. Http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091015/ap_on_re_us/us_chinese_drywall Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146652 by billgatesisevilus 0 10/15/2009 7:04:57 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK <<A new home, if constructed properly with good products should require almost no mtnc. For a number of years.>> For a number of years- a small number. Much of U.S. wood and plastic construction has a short lifetime. Roof shingles, vinyl stuff on exterior, wall to wall carpets, vinyl flooring, even gyp board gets all beat up. Don't let termites or rot get in their or you can really have some fun. Time for "updating". I am spoiled now on masonry construction and I don't mean a brick veneer on portions of the house. No gyp board. Cast concrete roof. Block with 2 coats (1" total) on each side of the wall. Tile floors and counters. No vinyl inside or out. No carpets- throw rugs, and minimal on those. Iron or iron and glass doors, block walls around the property. Your maintenance is painting and exterior wall cleaning, plus fixing what breaks. I hate stuff that decays while you watch. It is never better than on day one, and starts to go down from there. Tile, glass, iron (paint that ha ha), masonry, it doesn't go down unless you drop a bomb on it. And it will last through a cat 4 or 5 hurricane. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146656 by ronp01 0 10/15/2009 7:56:07 PM # 146670 by Spekulatius 0 10/16/2009 12:39:48 AM


	Re: Building Your Own House- Chinese Drywall They have come down in quality since they did the Great Wall it appears.


	Re: Building Your Own House- Dave, X <<Doing it again but on the same budget, what would you do differently?>> Considering AJ lost something off his roof during 2 days of a CAT 5 hurricane, I suspect he would install stronger brackets for his TV antenna, and maybe a more solid antenna also. Take that Mother Nature! Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146658 by billgatesisevilus 0 10/15/2009 8:22:09 PM


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK You don't have a house, you have a bomb shelter. That's great where you live with the threat of hurricanes every year. I built a new house in Marithon in the Fla. Keys several years ago. I engineered the house to withstand a cat4 hurricane. The following year we had a 135 mph hurricane literally go over the top of our house. My next door lost his roof, all the neighbors around us had major damage, and our house suffered about $35 damage. I lost part of nine shingles on the roof, that was it. Unfortunately too many homes and condos built in Fla. Were not designed to withstand a hurricane. Things are changing, but in your old area of Crystal River many home are well below flood plain levels. Buying one of these homes is just asking for trouble.


	Re: Building Your Own House- Dave, X Given that most of us are now stuck with the digital crap off the air, a tv antenna is not exactly what you might want anyway. Digital is nice but its non-linear. Non-linear modulation schemes are such that they either work or they go totally to hell. There is no "snowy" picture. Its either picture or no picture. Sorta like FM but more so. FM is also a non-linear modulation scheme as phase modulation. With FM there is a narrow area in which you can get a crud signal but its usually full on or full off. Replies to this message Recs Date Posted # 146661 by Infringer 0 10/15/2009 8:53:09 PM


	Re: Building Your Own House- Dave, X Digital TV is a US thang, and does not effect AJ's favorite Mexican soap operas.


	Re: Any Long Ideas? -BK Most Germans coming to the US refer to the houses here as "barns". Actually most barns in Germany are build more solid than houses here. The only advantage I see to US frame style construction is that it's easier to remodel <g>.

Discussion Title: Any Long Ideas? -BK
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Braskem S.A. - Any Long Ideas? -BK - BAK - InvestorVillage